Today, its time for the all-important US CPI data for the month of May and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 4 major banks regarding the upcoming CPI release.
Nomura
“After core CPI inflation slowed to 0.1% (0.098%) m-o-m in April, we expect only a modest rebound to 0.2% (0.158%) m-o-m in May, corresponding to 2.2% (2.198%) on a 12-month basis. Part of the softness in May core CPI inflation was likely owing to continued weakness in used vehicle prices and negative payback from an unusually large increase in April rent inflation. Higher jet fuel prices may have pushed up airline fares in April, posing some upside risk. However, we think that overall, core CPI likely increased at a trend-like pace in May, consistent with our view that inflation will accelerate only gradually. For non-core components, higher crude oil prices likely translated into higher retail gasoline prices while food prices likely increased at a steady pace of 0.2% m-o-m. Altogether, we expect headline CPI to increase by 0.3% m-o-m (0.259%), corresponding to 2.8% (2.834%) on a 12-month basis.”
TDS
“We look for CPI to firm to 2.8% y/y in May on the surge in energy prices, with the headline index up 0.3% m/m (market: 2.7% y/y, 0.2% m/m). Core inflation should see a more modest pickup to 2.2% y/y, in line with consensus, as a moderation in OER offsets strength in core goods prices. This would be consistent with a 0.2% m/m increase in core CPI after the soft 0.1% print in April.”
Deutsche Bank
“US CPI report for May will be out this afternoon and along with tomorrow’s PPI are the last big data prints that the Fed will have before their meeting. The consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside. Our US economists also expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. Our colleagues actually expect the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.”
Danske Bank
“In the US, we expect CPI core to rise 0.2% m/m (in line with consensus), implying an increase in the inflation rate to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% in April.”
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