Analysts at Nomura point out that this is the last time that we will receive a “third” estimate of UK’s GDP, with the ONS switching to publishing “monthly” GDP from next month (the first monthly estimate is due on 10 July, alongside industrial production, trade and construction data).
Key Quotes
“We do not expect any revision to the 0.1% q-o-q rate, though we think there are upside risks in future revisions thanks to a) the 0.1% being lower than initially forecast, b) the alignment adjustment having to be set at a very negative level to keep the spending side of the accounts showing growth of 0.1%, and c) the tendency of revisions to be upwards in nature.”
“Current account, Q1: The current account is made up of four key components: goods, services, incomes and transfers. We already know that for Q1 the goods deficit was around £2bn narrower than in Q4, while the services surplus was broadly GBP1bn smaller. This net £1bn improvement in trade is the reason we are looking for a GBP17bn overall current account deficit in Q1, from GBP18.4bn in Q4 last year.”
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