Next week in Canada, the employment report and trade data are due. According to National Bank of Canada’s analysts employment is likely to rise by 20K in June.
Key Quotes:
“Employment has decreased 49K in total between January and May, hampered by a slump in the private sector. The growing uncertainties surrounding Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. did nothing to encourage firms to add staff over that period and recent developments are unlikely to have changed that stance. Still, the country’s economy continues to operate above its potential and hiring intentions remain high among businesses according to the latest Business Outlook Survey. In this context, we expect a +20K print in June, a decent result but not good enough to salvage a lukewarm first half of the year. That should allow the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%, assuming no major changes in the participation rate.”
“We’ll also get data on May’s merchandise trade balance. Both energy and non-energy exports may have expanded in the month, boosted by higher prices. That said, the positive impact on the overall trade balance stemming from rising exports may have been offset by a rebound in imports after a 2.5% slump the prior month. All told, the trade deficit could have stayed roughly put at -C$2.0 billion. Markit’s manufacturing PMI for June also will be released this week.”
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