According to analysts at TDS, the Sunday elections assigned victory over the Mexican presidency to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), as widely expected by the markets and them.
Key Quotes
“With 34% of the votes counted, AMLO won a large 53.5% majority, leading on Anaya, second, by over 30% at the time of writing. This is too wide a gap to be closed with the votes that haven’t been counted yet. Therefore, opponents have already conceded defeat, which should help a smooth transition of power over the next five months, when the new president will be sworn in (December 2018). AMLO is Mexico’s first president elected neither from the PRI nor the PAN parties.”
“Also important for markets, AMLO’s Morena party and its allies have not won an outright majority in the Senate. They have already secured 215 of the 300 deputies (final count), and will likely be the largest minority in the Senate. But missing a senate majority, Morena’s coalition will fall short of the qualified 2/3 majority in Congress to change the constitution.”
“Also, as the vote count (64 out of 96 seats already assigned) attributes to Morena and its allies 30.2% of the Senate, or 29 Senators. With 32 senators left to be assigned, it is technically still possible for Morena to win a majority in the Senate, but seems extremely unlikely. This means that passing ordinary legislation will be complicated by the lack of control in the Senate – something the market should cheer at as it will minimize the risk of populist/market unfriendly measures being taken.”
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