Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest that their China nowcasting model puts GDP growth at 6.7% y/y in the first two months of Q2-2018, slightly lower than Q1 growth of 6.8% y/y.
Key Quotes
“The estimate is based on 42 actual monthly time series covering prices, real activity, trade, interest rates and monetary data.”
“The model shows that GDP growth slowed further to 6.6% y/y in Q2, consistent with our official GDP forecast (which was made independent of the model).”
“Looking ahead, we expect the housing-market downtrend to continue this year due to restrictive policies.”
“We maintain our forecast that growth will slow to 6.4% y/y in H2, with annual growth falling to 6.5% from 6.9% in 2017.”
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