Madhur Jha, Head of Thematic Research at Standard Chartered, points out that global trade rose in 2017 as improved import demand in 2017 was led by the US.
Key Quotes
“US GDP growth is likely to be even stronger in 2018 on the back of fiscal stimulus. And despite the combative stance of the US administration on trade, the US continues to be the main driver of global imports, even in 2018 (latest data as of April 2018).”
“However, import demand (volume) from emerging markets has eased; partly on concerns about trade tensions and as demand from China slows. This has meant that overall global trade volume growth has flat-lined so far in 2018.”
“Rising trade tensions and the imposition of competitive tariffs pose a threat to the global trade outlook and our 4.0% global growth outlook.”
“While the US drives global imports by volume, Asia continues to lead on the export side, making it vulnerable to slowing global import demand.”
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