Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the six month annualised growth rate in the Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, rose from -0.06% in June to +0.55% in July.
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“The index has posted a solid rebound from last month’s below trend read. Despite this, the Leading Index growth rate has still slowed materially since the start of the year, from +1.31%in February to +0.55% in July.”
“Over the course of the last six months the Index has only dipped below zero on the one occasion which was last month. That is sending a more positive signal around the growth outlook than we are expecting at Westpac.”
“We are expecting growth over the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 to hold slightly below trend particularly in light of an uncertain outlook for the consumer.”
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