Analysts at Nomura explained that it’s been a strange summer, especially with Turkey added to the growing list of rolling volatility events this year.
Key Quotes:
“Well the summer sun is nearly over and September holds a host of events risks to watch out for.”
“The UK parliament returns from summer recess and the Brexit plan is still in doubt, the US is due to complete its review of China tariffs and the auto sector, Italy looks to submit its DEF and smaller European central banks may soon look to hike.”
“But beyond the here and now, the US midterms are not long away off, with elections in Sweden, Bavaria, Brazil and India too. Looking forward, the Mueller investigation has picked up pace, NAFTA remains uncertain; the US Treasury’s semiannual FX report may focus more on China, while sanctions on Iran from November come into full effect.”
“As 2019 approaches the market may start to focus more on Mr Draghi and Mr Carney’s possible replacements, the constant discussion over the timing and pace of ECB “lift-off” and the BoE’s reaction function to any or indeed no Brexit deal.”
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