USDTRY is moving upwards for a fourth consecutive day and what is worst, the move is now accelerating and may continue to do so without proper backstops, points out Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
“The lira is approaching the critical 7 mark and, with the sell-off gaining momentum, could easily break above 7 by tomorrow.”
“USDTRY could soon be heading towards the all-time high on Bloomberg screens of 7.2362. Erdogan’s comments today do not facilitate normalization.”
“The market remains free to put upside pressure on USDTRY ahead of next Monday’s CPI data for August. Inflation could reach and breach 17%. Even if CPI comes in tamer, by year end, we think, it will still head to 20%.”
“The CBRT is still not free to hike rates and has, in fact, increased rather than reduced TRY liquidity in the banking sector in the past few days – this could be recipe for disaster.”
“With USDTRY out of control, we expect negative spillovers into ZAR, RUB, MXN and BRL (the highest betas to TRY moves, but PLN and HUF also exhibit a high beta).”
“Asia FX is the defensive trade at the moment, especially in light of the CNY-defensive measures recently announced in China.”
Share
