- Lira (TRY) took a beating on Thursday on reports that the Turkish central bank’s deputy governor and Monetary Policy Committee member Erkan Kilimci is set to resign.
- Experts downplay contagion fears, but EM currencies are feeling the heat. Indian Rupee (INR) hit record low yesterday and Argentina’s peso dropped 10 percent, forcing the central bank to raise rates to 60 percent.
- The USD/TRY looks set re-test the record highs above $7.00, having ended last week’s consolidation with a bull breakout.
- The drop in the lira has revived interest in the TRY puts (bearish bets). The USD/TRY one-month 25 delta risk reversals hit a two-week high of 9.90 yesterday.
Hourly chart
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Spot Rate: 6.75
Daily High: 6.7839
Daily Low: 6.6231
Trend: Bullish
R1: 6.7847 (78.6% Fib R of the recent pullback from record highs)
R2: 6.9536 (Aug. 14 high)
R3: 7.0831 (record highs)
Support
S1: 6.6231 (session low)
S2: 6.4422 (5-day moving average)
S3: 6.2490 (10-day moving average)
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