EU market and political activity should lift as the region’s summer recess comes to an end, according to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac.
Key Quotes
“Final PMIs will be of interest given the concerning write-ups with the flash reports. Although a shift in ECB’s extended policy guidance (meet 13th Sept) is highly unlikely, any lift in regional CPI pressures or labour and wage data could shift market sentiment.”
“Of far greater immediate concern will be the detailing of the initial budget from Italy’s new populist coalition. Their divergent policies suggest that there may well be a blowout of the EU’s 3% to GDP deficit ruling. Both dep PMs Di Maio and Salvini have threatened to use the budget threat as a means of gaining support on key issues, notably migration; this topic could ignite broader EU pressures.”
“EUR has rebounded over 3% off its recent lows and so any pressure from Italy, likely to be expressed in the BRP-Bund spread, could force EUR/USD towards the lower bounds its current range (1.12-1.19).”
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