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ABN AMRO analysts are forecasting that the ECB will likely remain on hold until the very end of next year and are pencilling in a 10bp hike in December 2020.

Key Quotes

“We previously expected a 10bp increase in March 2020 and one in September of next year.”

“We also expect the ECB to announce a new (T)LTRO (previously an extension of the current one). At the June Governing Council meeting, we expect the ECB to change its forward guidance to rule out rate hikes for this year as well as announcing another (T)LTRO.”