For the second month in a row, the ADP number falls short, with a gain of only 190K jobs in August. In addition, last month’s figure was revised to the downside: 177K instead of 185K originally reported.
The dollar is only slightly lower against major currencies. The miss was not huge. Update: after the initial move, the dollar returns to previous levels.
The ADP report for the private sector was expected to show a gain of 201K jobs in August, better than 185K posted for July (before revisions).
The dollar was somewhat stronger towards the release, with more notable gains against the pound and commoditiy currencies, while less so against the euro and the yen.
This serves as a hint towards the official Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, which also consists of government jobs. While the correlation between the two reports is not always there, the publication has a significant market impact.
Yesterday we got a disappointing read from the ISM Manufacturing PMI and this temporarily hit the dollar.
We later have no farm productivity and revised unit labor costs, which are important for the Fed, as well as as factory orders. Also note the release of crude oil inventories.
Another hint comes tomorrow from the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (services sector) and this carries a lot of weight.
Also tomorrow, we have the all important European Central Bank decision:
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