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ADP reported a gain of 158K private sector jobs in March, below expectations that stood on a gain of 200K. The upside is that February’s data was revised from 198K initially reported to 237K.

USD/JPY reacted with a drop – the pair often provides the best reactions to US data.

In February, ADP’s better than expected number was followed by a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report. So, if the ADP report is relatively accurate once again, we can expected a lower gain in jobs in the official release.

These figures do not always match and ADP changed its formula a few months ago. We will soon know if the figures are correlated also for March.

This isn’t the first US figure that disappoints in recent weeks.  The signs of accelerated growth are now decelerating once again. Last week, jobless claims jumped back up to 357K after a few excellent weeks.

The next big hint for the NFP is the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. See how to trade it with USD/JPY.