The ADP report for private sector jobs showed a gain of only 119K jobs. Early expectations stood on a gain of 178K for the month of April.
The initial figure for March was a gain of 209K, far better than the private sector gain reported in the official Non-Farm Payrolls report. Also this number underwent a downwards revision: from 209K to 201K.
EUR/USD has been falling sharply before the publication. Stronger US indicators and worse than expected European figures have hurt the common currency. Even German unemployment is on the rise. The publication of the ADP report pushed the pair higher, but the move is limited so far.
See more in the euro to dollar forecast.
USD/JPY is falling on this publication. The yen is enjoying it more than the euro.
Other employment indicators
ISM Manufacturing PMI. reported yesterday, came out better than expected, at 54.8 instead of 53 and even more importantly, the employment component continued rising: from 56.1 to 57.3 points. A score above 50 reflects growth, and can be labelled as “strong growth”.
The most important sector in the US economy is services. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Before that, at 12:30 GMT, weekly jobless claims are released, and they are expected to slide from the relatively high levels of 388K.
All these factors are indicators towards the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Jamie Coleman shows that ADP and NFP are quite correlated in their general movements. This doesn’t look good.
The situation of the US economy is detailed in the Forex Monthly Report for May. You can download it for free by joining the newsletter.