Over the last 30 years, April has been one of the best months of the entire year – and this year, the rainy month could have some extra advantages, Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset strategist for Morgan Stanley, briefs.
April tends to be stronger, May through September worse
“For global stocks, returns in April tend to be about 2% better than average, while the returns in May through September are about 1% worse. Still, every little bit matters, and over time, these small numbers can make a difference.”
“This April should be the last month where economic data is strong, but US core inflation is still below 2%. First quarter earnings and economic data have an additional advantage this month – it’s the one-year anniversary of the lows in economic activity from last year. As such, any year over year comparison is going to be highly favorable.”
“From May, we forecast US core inflation to rise above 2%, and then stay there. The rate of change for economic data, off of those extremes of the April 2020 lows, should also peak. While we’re keeping an open mind, these factors could make for a somewhat more challenging summer.”
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