Asia: Current growth slowdown close to a trough? – ANZ

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According to analysts at ANZ, there are further signs that the current growth slowdown in Asia may be close to a trough.

Key Quotes

“China’s Q1 GDP growth has beat expectations but more importantly, the activity indicators for March showed improving momentum. Across the region, export data for March has been mixed so far, but the latest PMI new export orders point to a likely improvement in the months ahead.”

“A key leading indicator for the global technology cycle is pointing towards a rebound, which would bode well for Asia’s exports. These signs, alongside our view that there would be further monetary stimulus from some central banks in the region, will help secure a growth recovery in the second half of 2019.”

“Given the inventory overhang in some economies, the magnitude of the recovery is likely to be moderate in the initial stages. However, it should be sufficient to support risk appetite and sustain foreign portfolio flows into the region.”

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