AUD/JPY holding above 21 4-hour moving average, although trade-war angst weighs

• AUD/JPY  leaning on th support of the 21 4-hour moving average.
• Trade war bears  concerned that it is only a phase one deal agreed in principle.

AUD/JPY has corrected from the 21 4-hour moving average with AUD/USD firming in London’s afternoon in a short squeeze from the lows. AUD/JPY has traded between a high of 73.74 and a low of 72.99 on the day and start to the week in holiday thin markets. However, there will be plenty of data for the week ahead to momentarily steal the focus away from geopolitics.  

AUD/JPY was under pressure at the start of the week following scrutiny over the first phase trade deal agreement that had  been arranged in principal by the Chinese and US on Friday, yet not in ink. The details of the agreement are yet to be disclosed, but there is a chance that the China and the US could still disagree on aspects of the deal that had been perhaps miscommunicated and lost in translation.  

Bears are concerned that it is only a phase one deal agreed in principle and that things could breakdown from the get-go considering  it would appear that the Chinese wish to meet again before signing and moving to contract.  There were reports floating around, originating in a Bloomberg article, that China asked for more  talks with the US before  signing the first phase of a trade deal.  

Eyes on Aussie jobs

Meanwhile, looking ahead, the week will bring key economic release form both China and Australia. China Gross Domestic Produce will be critical as well as Aussie Employment data.  On the 17th October, Australia jobs numbers will be a priority for traders and analysts at TD Securities explained that they are forecasting roughly  in line with the market, consistent with slowing employment growth – “A number close to the market, however, is unlikely to provide the smoking gun for a Nov cut. Raw historical data for Sep is firmly positive and as such a sharp drop in the headline jobs print is less likely.”

AUD/JPY levels