AUD Rate Decision: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios (Elliott Wave

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On December 4th, at 03:30 GMT, the RBA will make its rate decision and the markets expect a cut from 3.25% to 3.0%. The Australian dollar was very weak during the last few days compared to other risk-on currencies, so we need to keep in mind that a rate cut may already be calculated in market price.

Therefore, despite a possible cut, AUD could spike higher and cause »buy the rumor sell the fact« reaction.  Anyhow I have a bullish GBPAUD count and bullish AUDJPY pairs here which is obviously a different story for AUD.

If AUD will fall after the announcement then GBPAUD will probably rise sharply, maybe even in wave three of three towards 1.5530. In such case we would be interested to buy fourth wave pull-back.

GBPAUD-bearish count for AUD

If AUD will gain significantly after the report, then AUDJPY should be on the radar, because GBPAUD will probably become invalid count. In such a case our focus will be a break higher, out of a fourth wave triangle.

AUDJPY-bullish count for AUD

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About Author

Grega Horvat
Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of www.ew-forecast.com, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At www.ew-forecast.com he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.
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