AUD Rate Decision: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios (Elliott Wave Analysis)


On December 4th, at 03:30 GMT, the RBA will make its rate decision and the markets expect a cut from 3.25% to 3.0%. The Australian dollar was very weak during the last few days compared to other risk-on currencies, so we need to keep in mind that a rate cut may already be calculated in market price.

Therefore, despite a possible cut, AUD could spike higher and cause »buy the rumor sell the fact« reaction.  Anyhow I have a bullish GBPAUD count and bullish AUDJPY pairs here which is obviously a different story for AUD.

If AUD will fall after the announcement then GBPAUD will probably rise sharply, maybe even in wave three of three towards 1.5530. In such case we would be interested to buy fourth wave pull-back.

GBPAUD-bearish count for AUD

If AUD will gain significantly after the report, then AUDJPY should be on the radar, because GBPAUD will probably become invalid count. In such a case our focus will be a break higher, out of a fourth wave triangle.

AUDJPY-bullish count for AUD

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About Author

Gregor Horvat is  based in Slovenia (Central Europe) and has been in Forex market since 2003. He is technical analyst and individual trader who also provide a lot of articles and trade plans based on the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave principle. He was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published in:, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, He mostly focuses on currencies, oil, gold, and the U.S. stock market. Gregor Horvat is also founder of forex services on provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). EWP provides a method for identifying price points at which a market is most likely to turn. Knowing the probable swing and reversal points provides confirmation of where investors could enter and exit positions for the highest probability of success. Gregor Horvat Chief  Technical Strategist Website:  For more analysis visit our website and Try our services absolutely free for 7-days!

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