- AUD/USD: technicals are mixed, bulls taking charge above 100-4hr SMA.
- AUD/USD: key events this week will include the all-important employment data and US retail sales.
AUD/USD is finding support from the rising 50-hr SMA at 0.7543 currently, while otherwise, the pair is consolidating the full bull reversal of May’s downside. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7552, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7567 and low at 0.7542.
AUD/USD has, for the best part, stuck to the Asia commencing range of between 0.7543-0.7565 with no signs of an extension either way as the week starts off without a catalyst. Instead, traders cast minds back to the US CPI miss and look ahead to the US retails sales and RBA’s Debelle who will speak about Australian economic outlook, both on Tuesday. We also have the key Australian April employment figures on Thursday.
Key events on the horizon
First up, traders will look to the RBA minutes and the Chinese data dump tonight in Asia as a potential catalyst – (AUD shorts increased sharply as the RBA’ policy meeting signalled no imminent change in policy).
AUD and NZD: Recovering little ground – Rabobank
AUD/USD levels
Technically, the chart is bearish on the wider time frames. The price fell way below the descending channel’s support (0.7590 23rd April – 0.7412 8th May) and recovery attempts back above the line are yet to convince. For instance, zooming in, while the shorter term picture is more promising with this recovery attempt with there being a prior short-term high set above the 10-D SMA at 0.7566, (10th May), bulls slipped to 0.7636 and recoveries are short of the prior recovery high. However, the price is finding support from the 100-4hr SMA and there is also long lower wick on the monthly candle under inning the notion of a bullish correction still in play. Beyond 0.7600, on the wide, a break higher and through the rising 200-D SMA on the 0.78 handle, 0.7910 will be in focus.
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