AUD/USD: Bears taking a breather at 50-D SMA, (ATR exhausted), ahead of key support and Aussie Capex

• AUD/USD is currently trading above its ATR of  65 pips at 0.7132, down from the highs of 0.7198, a balancing act above lows of 0.7127, the 50D SMA and key support (0.7100/20) ahead of deeper territory towards 70 the figure.
• AUD/USD traders will monitor trade  headlines and today’s CAPEX in Asia.

With the dovish/neutral RBA firmly priced in, AUD/USD is now taking its cues from additional data leading up to the all important GDP releases on March 6th. The Aussie  has been pressured since a big miss on construction data for Q4 2018 – (that will have a bearing on GDP). The pair crumbled from a handful of pips away from the 0.72 handle and after an initial pick up in the pre-European open by sympathetic Japanese traders, the Europeans were giving out no free lunches and walloped the pair down half a buck before London got into the swing of things and knocked the pair over to recent lows with a helping hand from New York traders and some firmer housing data ahead of tomorrow’s key U.S. GDP.  

Dr Copper holding tight at the tops, for now

Looking across to the commodities sector, of which the Aussie trades as a proxy, there should be a focus on Dr.Copper. The price of the red metal has been at its highest this month since July of 2018 with speculators getting involved with the base metal sector as easing trade tensions offer an opportunity coupled with Fed Powell maintaining his ‘patient approach’ rhetoric resulting in a bearish lean in the dollar, which has been testing back below the 96.50 and the H&S neckline on the DXY hourly chart – (Speculators increased their bullish bets on LME copper by 3,735 net long positions to 31,665, according to the exchange). However, a breakdown in trade talks will likely see a big paring back in the sector, likely to weigh heavily on the Aussie.

Onus will be on China to commit to structural industrial reform

While the outlook for global growth has garnered a positive twist of late, thanks to trade talk bullishness, there is still a low bar for worse relations between the US and China to flare up again with plenty of key issues to be resolved. The onus will be on China to commit to structural industrial reform, a move that could be a stumbling block in ending the trade war between the two countries – and as timely as you can get, at the time of writing, Lighthizer has just stated that “the US would reserve ‘right to retaliate’ if China violates pact” – comments such as these do not bode well for the Aussie, which is already on the back foot licking its wounds following a sell-off in Asia and European markets.

Key data ahead

Capex is on the cards for tonight that will provide some further guidance on growth prospects. The December quarter update will be released including the 5th estimate of capex plans for the 2018/19 financial year and the 1st estimate of plans for 2019/20. Markets will focus on plans for 2019/20. “Estimate 1 for 2019/20 may, on the face of it, appear to be quite positive,” analysts at Westpac predict.  

AUD/USD TA:

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie drops to daily lows near 0.7130 level