AUD/USD confronts 10-day SMA ahead of Aussie retail sales, financial stability review
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AUD/USD confronts 10-day SMA ahead of Aussie retail sales, financial stability review

  • AUD/USD on the bids ahead of key Aussie data/event.
  • Recent headlines concerning US President Donald Trump’s impeachment adds to the USD weakness.
  • Aussie catalysts will precede the US jobs report and Fed’s comments, making it the key day.

With the latest headlines suggesting an increase in challenges to the US President, AUD/USD benefits from the greenback’s weakness while taking the bids to 0.6745 during early Asian morning on Friday.

The Washington Post (WaPo) and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently rolled out stories that might exert additional pressure on the United States’ (US) President Donald Trump’s impeachment inquiry. The WSJ report, based on anonymous sources, said that the Republican leader ordered the removal of the ambassador to Ukraine (Marie Yovanovitch) while WaPo relied on the complaint filed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) official  alleging Treasury Department political appointee tried improper interference with the annual audit of the US President or Vice President’s tax returns.

The US Dollar (USD) was earlier bearing the burden of downbeat activity numbers renewing calls of the US recession. Adding to the greenback’s weakness could be trade tussle surrounding the US-China and US-EU series, not to forget political pessimism for the President.

While speech from the US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will gain immediate attention of markets, traders will then focus on Australia’s August month retail sales and HIA New Home Sales figures while the bi-annual Financial Stability Review from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and RBA’s Assistant Governor Luci Ellis’s speech could also garner much attention afterward. Following that, the monthly employment data from the US and a speech from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be the key to watch.

The forecast suggests a huge spike in the HIA New Home Sales (MoM) from -7.2% to 33.7% while seasonally adjusted Retail Sales (MoM) could also recover to 0.5% from -0.1%. The RBA’s Ellis is set to speak at an Australian Industry Group event in Geelong while semi-annual review of the financial system might spot recent challenges to the Aussie economy and upswing in the property markets.

Given the present risk-off sentiment, backed by the USD weakness, any uptick in the Aussie data and/or optimism in qualitative catalysts will set the stage for the pair’s extended run-up ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Technical Analysis

A sustained break above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) nearing 0.6750 becomes the key to pair’s run-up towards 0.6770 and the early-August highs close to 0.6820. Alternatively, 0.6720, 0.6700 and 0.6680 seem to limit pair’s immediate declines ahead of highlighting 0.6600 on sellers’ radar.

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