AUD/USD, reversed directions last week, posting gains of close to 1.0%. The upcoming week is busy, with 10 events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar is sensitive to trade tensions, so the G-20 meeting, which concluded on Saturday, could affect the Aussie’s movement this week. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China has caused a slowdown in China, which in turn has hurt the Australian economy. Any signs of progress in the trade dispute could raise investor risk appetite and boost the Australian dollar.
In the U.S., this week’s numbers were a mixed bag. CB consumer confidence dropped to 121.5 in June, down sharply from 131.3 in May. This marked its lowest level since September 2017. First-quarter GDP was unrevised in the second estimate, with a strong gain of 3.1%. Durable goods orders disappointed with a decline of 1.3%, its third decline in four months. There was no movement from the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The indicator remained stuck at 0.2%.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Sunday, 1:00. The Aussie is sensitive to key Chinese data, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.4 in June, shy of expectations. This points to contraction.
- AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 22:30. The index has been above the 50-level throughout 2019, which points to expansion. In May, the index slowed to 52.7. Will we see an improvement in June?
- MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 1:00. This Melbourne Institute indicator helps analysts track inflation on a monthly basis. Inflation has been dropping and fell to a flat zero in May. Low inflation levels are a concern as they are well below the RBA target of 2%.
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. In May, the Caixin PMI was a bit stronger than the official manufacturing PMI, with a reading of 50.2. Little change is expected in June, with a forecast of 50.1.
- RBA Rate Decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The RBA lowered rates to 1.25% at the June meeting, and the markets are expecting another quarter-point cut this week. If the RBA cuts rates again, traders can expect the Aussie to lose ground.
- AIG Services Index: Tuesday, 22:30. In May, the index pushed above 50, after four successive readings in contraction territory.
- Building Approvals: Wednesday, 1:30. This key construction indicator tends to show sharp swings, and has recorded two straight declines. The May forecast stands at zero.
- Trade Balance: Wednesday, 1:30. Australia’s trade surplus dropped slightly in April, coming in at A$4.87 billion, shy of the estimate of $5.05 billion. The markets are expecting a rebound in May, with an estimate of $5.25 billion.
- Retail Sales: Thursday, 1:30. . Retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending and should be treated as a market mover. The indicator was unexpectedly soft in April, with a decline of 0.1%. This missed the estimate of 0.2%. The estimate for May remains at 0.2%.
- AIG Construction Index: Thursday, 22:30. The index has mired in contraction territory since August, with nine straight readings below the 50-level. Another reading indicating contraction is expected in June.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
The round number of 0.74 was the high point reached at the wake of December. This is followed by 0.7340, which the pair breached in late November.
0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September.
0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October.
0.7165 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since early April.
0.7085 was a low point in September.
0.7022 is under pressure as AUD/USD touched a high of 0.7021 last week.
0.6988 switched to a support level after strong gains by AUD/USD. It marked the low point in April.
0.6864 was a low point in May.
0.6744 was a low point in January.
0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.
0.6547 was an important resistance line back in December 2008.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD
The RBA will be in focus this week, with the markets expecting a second rate cut in as many weeks. Although the rate cut has been priced in, there is a strong chance that the Aussie will lose ground. A dovish rate statement could also weigh on the currency.
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Further reading:
- EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
- USD/JPY forecast – projections for dollar/yen
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar analysis
- Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
Safe trading!
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