AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The minutes provide details of the RBA meeting in June, when policymakers cut rates from 1.50% to 1.25%. This marked the first rate cut in almost three years, and a dovish tone to the minutes could send the Aussie lower.
- HPI: Tuesday, 1:30. The housing market remains weak, with the House Price Index rolling off declines in the past four quarters. The fourth-quarter was particularly weak, with a decline of 2.4%. The markets are braced for another sharp decline in Q1, with an estimate of -2.5%.
- CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 14:30. The Conference Board gauge posted a gain of 0.3% in March. Will the April reading show an improvement?
- MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 0:30. The Melbourne Institute indicator declined by 01% in April, marking a 4-month low. The May reading will be released this week.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With AUD/USD sliding last week, we start at lower levels:
0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October.
0.7165 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since early April.
0.7085 was a low point in September.
0.7022 is the high-point in 2019. It has held since early January.
0.6988 remained relevant during the week. It marked the low point in April.
0.6864 has been an important support level since May. It was tested this week.
0.6744 was a low point in January.
0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.
0.6547 was an important resistance line back in December 2008.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD
Weak Chinese data this week underscored the slowdown gripping the Chinese economy, which will make it difficult for Aussie to gain ground. As well, the RBA rate cut has made the currency less attractive to investors.
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