The Australian dollar had an uneventful week, as AUD/USD continues to hover just above the round number of 70. There are only three events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The RBA held the benchmark rate at 1.50%, as expected. GDP for Q4 disappointed, as the gain of 0.2% was the lowest since 2016. Retail sales posted a weak gain of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20 thousand, much worse than the forecast of 180 thousand. There was better news from wage growth, which gained 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%.
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20 thousand, much worse than the forecast of 180 thousand. Wage growth improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The National Australia Bank business confidence gauge has been fairly steady since October. Confidence edged up to 4 in January, up from 3 a month earlier.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. This indicator tends to have strong swings. Consumer confidence rebounded in February with a gain of 4.3%, after a decline of 4.7% in January.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. Inflation expectations is a useful gauge for tracking actual inflation data. The indicator improved to 3.7% in January, up from 3.5% a month earlier.
*All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD headed lower throughout the week, breaking below support at 0.7085 (mentioned last week). The pair reversed directions on Friday and posted slight gains
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with the round number of 0.74, the high point reached at the wake of December. This is followed by 0.7340, which the pair breached in late November.
0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September. Further down, 0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October. 0.7190 marked a low point in the first week of December.
Lower, 0.7165 was a swing low after a recovery in mid-November. 0.7085 was a low point in September and protected the symbolic round number of 0.70.
Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017.
Below, 0.6825 supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.
0.6744 was a low point in January.
0.6686 was an important cap back in January 2000. It is the final support line for now.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
The Australian economy is showing signs of weakness, with analysts raising the possibility of a rate cut from the RBA if matters don’t improve soon. The U.S.-China trade spat has led to a slowdown in China, and this has in turn dampened Australian growth, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
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- Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
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