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  • The number of openings in the February quarter decreased by 1.5%.
  • According to NAB, Australian interest rates will peak at 3.85%.
  • The RBA is still expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April.

Today’s AUD/USD outlook is bullish. Australia’s job openings decreased in the three months leading up to February. However, they are still significantly higher than before the pandemic, indicating the tight labor market.

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According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of openings in February decreased by 1.5% from the previous quarter to 438,500. The figure was the lowest in a year, but it was still 92% greater than in February 2020, before the pandemic began.

According to Bjorn Jarvis, director of labor statistics for the ABS, employers continue to have a very high demand for labor across Australia.

One of the reasons the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased interest rates ten times since May, is the strength of the labor market.

The National Australia Bank on Thursday forecasted that Australian interest rates would peak at 3.85%, down from its previous forecast of 4.1%. According to NAB, the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points in April before reducing rates in the first half of 2024.

The bank’s chief economist Alan Oster stated, “We expect to see rate cuts in H1 2024, reducing the cash rate to 3.1% as the economy slows and unemployment rises.”

AUD/USD key events today

In the US, a report on the fourth quarter’s GDP will be released, and investors expect the GDP to stay at 2.7%. A report on initial unemployment claims will also reveal the state of the job market.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Buyers eyeing the 0.6750 resistance

AUD/USD technical outlook

The 4-hour chart shows AUD/USD in a bullish move, breaking above the 0.6700 resistance level. The price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, indicating bulls are in charge. This follows a failed attempt by bears to break below the 30-SMA.

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With such strong bullish momentum, the price will be looking to get to the next resistance level at 0.6750. However, if bulls get rejected above the 0.6700 key level, we might see the price break below the SMA and fall to the 0.6625 support.

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