AUD/USD Price Analysis: Flirts with 100-hour SMA/50% Fibo. confluence, around 0.7730 area

• AUD/USD witnessed some profit-taking on Thursday and retreated sharply from 34-month tops.
• Mixed oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets.

The AUD/USD pair extended its retracement slide from 34-month tops – levels beyond the 0.7800 mark – and continued losing ground through the mid-European session. The pullback was exclusively sponsored by a solid US dollar rebound and dragged the pair further below mid-0.7700s.

Meanwhile, the pair’s inability to find acceptance above the 0.7800 mark constitutes the formation of a double-top on the 1-hourly chart. Bulls, however, have shown some resilience below 100-hour SMA and the AUD/USD pair, so far, has managed to defend the 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.7643-0.7820 (current week’s) positive move.

Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart have just eased the overbought zone but are still holding comfortably in the bullish territory and yet to confirm a negative bias. On the other hand, oscillators on hourly charts have been losing traction and support prospects for an extension of the intraday corrective slide.

The divergence on daily/hourly charts makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 0.7730 region (50% Fibo. level) before confirming that the pair has topped out in the near-term. This, in turn, will set the stage for a further decline to the 61.8% Fibo. level en-route 200-hour SMA support, or sub-0.7700 levels.

On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 0.7755-60 region now seems to act as immediate resistance. A sustained move beyond should assist bulls to make a fresh attempt to reclaim the 0.7800 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 0.7820 double-top resistance should pave the way for additional gains for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD 1-hourly chart

Technical levels to watch