AUD/USD: Rebound in Aussie exports fails to lift the AUD

• AUD/USD fails to draw bids despite a rebound in Aussie exports.
• Exports rose 2.4%, while imports increased by 1%. 
• Australia’s Retail Sales growth for June has been revised higher to 2.7%.
• Trade surplus missed expectations by a big margin.

AUD/USD continues to trade in the red near 0.7115 despite the rebound in Australia’s exports. 

Outbound shipments or exports rose 3% in June following May’s 4% contraction. In addition, consumer spending, as represented by seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 2.7% month-on-month in June, beating the preliminary forecast of 2.4%. 

Even so, the AUD is struggling to draw bids. That’s probably because trade surplus rose only slightly to AUD 8,202 million from AUD 8,025 million, missing the forecast of AUD 8,800 million by a big margin. Take note that imports rose 1% following May’s 6% contraction. 

Also, the sell-off in the American dollar has stalled with sentiment reaching bearish extremes. The upbeat print of ISM Manufacturing PMI released Monday may be helping the US dollar stay bid and keep the AUD/USD under pressure. 

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision and Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP). The RBA is likely to maintain the status quo on Tuesday and reiterate the willingness to do more if required. Traders would watch out for comments on the exchange rate. The AUD/USD pair has rallied by over 1,700 pips in the last 4.5 months. So far, however, the central bank has refrained from aggressively talking down the Aussie dollar. 

Technical levels