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  • AUD/USD staged a goodish bounce amid a modest USD pullback from multi-month tops.
  • Recovering US equity futures prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven USD.
  • The attempted recovery runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly and remain limited.

The AUD/USD pair has recovered around 35-40 pips from daily swing lows and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, near the 0.7620-25 region.

A modest bounce in the US equity futures prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven US dollar and extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that assisted the AUD/USD pair to stage a modest bounce from the 0.7585-80 region, just ahead of YTD lows.

The AUD/USD pair, for now, seems to have stalled its recent sharp pullback from monthly tops, around mid-0.7800s, touched in the aftermath of the dovish FOMC statement last week. That said, any meaningful recovery seems elusive amid the underlying bullish sentiment around the USD, supported by the upbeat US economic outlook.

Investors remain optimistic about the prospects for a relatively faster US economic recovery amid the impressive pace of COVID-19 vaccinations and the passage of a massive stimulus package. Moreover, renewed COVID-19 jitters, potential US tax hikes, diplomatic tensions between China and the West might further cap the AUD/USD pair.

Hence, the intraday recovery might still be categorized as a short-covering bounce from oversold conditions on hourly charts and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has bottomed out.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of Durable Goods Orders and flash PMI prints for March. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony and the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute to produce some trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch