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  • AUD/USD is barely moving despite above-forecast Australia retail sales and trade balance figures.
  • Retail sales bettered estimates but showed the consumer spending slowed significantly in March.
  • Caution ahead of the RBA is likely keeping the AUD traders on the sidelines.

A better-than-expected Aussie consumer spending and trade data released soon before press time is struggling to move the needle on the AUD/USD pair.

The consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3% month-on-month in March, beating the expected 0.2% rise. The actual figure, however, marks a significant slowdown in spending from the 0.8% growth registered in February.

Further, Australia’s trade surplus widened to A$ 4,949 million in March, topping the forecast of A$ 4,300 million and up slightly from the preceding month’s print of 4,801 million. Exports, however, dropped 2%, offering little reason for the AUD bulls to cheer the headline surplus figure.

As a result, the AUD/USD pair has barely moved from the level of 0.6995 seen before the release of the data.

The caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, due at 04:30 GMT, may be the reason for AUD’s lackluster response to macroeconomic data release.

Financial markets now believe there is a 48 % chance the RBA will slice the official interest rates to a record-low 1.25% today, down from 60% seen about ten days ago.

Technical Levels