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  • AUD/USD moves to session highs on data, although remains subdued in the main in quiet markets.
  • Commodities a tough firmer, although the risks are for a strong greenback as Sino and US tensions ratchet up.

AUD/USD has been consolidating Friday’s decline in a mere 0.7147-73 range while the US dollar stages a moderate comeback following a marginal move higher in real yields on Friday.

At the time of writing the commodity, the currency is barely higher at 0.7158 vs the dollar after a slight chop in a mostly lacklustre time on Wall Street.  

AUD/USD was choppy at times but at 0.7150, it is barely changed from Friday’s fall.

In recent trade, we have seen Australia NAB business confidence -14 (prior 1) and business conditions 0 (prior -7).

The data has had little bearing on the currency, although it has ticked higher to score the high for the session.

Meanwhile, with the conservative approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia all digested and done for the time being, its a focus back to the greenback and Sino/US trade tensions. 

China sanctioned 11 US officials in retaliation to similar moves made by the US against Chinese officials last week, although there was little reaction to this.

  • Yi Gang, governor of PBoC: China to continue implementing phase-one trade agreement

Meanwhile, the hope of further stimulus packages has been helping to support sentiment in commodity markets.

Metals recovered much of the lost ground seen Friday, with copper rebounding 1.5% to $6,401 and aluminium up 0.68% to $1,783.   

The ANZ China Commodity Index was ending Monday’s session up 0.1%.

Nevertheless, it was a cautious move higher, with some sectors struggling to keep their head above water,

analysts at ANZ bank said.

Precious metals ended lower, with gold falling. Bulk commodities were also weaker, with iron ore and coking coal coming under pressure. Agriculture inched lower, weighed down by falls in palm oil and cotton. Crude oil gained, along with natural gas. Industrial metals were also stronger, with copper and aluminium leading the sector higher.

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD continues to hover over the near-term uptrend at 0.7147 with bullish bets on a run to the 200-week ma at 0.7257 and the 55-month moving average at 0.7284, as noted by analysts at Commerzbank.

If seen, we would allow this to again hold as we note the diverging RSI. Above 0.7284 lies the 0.7394.

We have the December high at 0.7031 and the 4-month uptrend at.6905. Key support is offered by 0.6778/74, the February high and mid-June low. This latter level is reinforced by the 200-day ma at .6707.