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Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change  posted an excellent  gain of 26.1  thousand in March, well above the  estimate of 18.6 thousand.  The markets are expecting a softer reading in the April report, with a forecast of 12.1 thousand.

 Sentiment and Levels

The RBA lowered rates earlier in May and could make another cut in August, after the Australian election. With  a  June hike by the Federal Reserve still a possibility, the recent Aussie slide could continue. So, the overall sentiment is  bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7597, 0.7438, 0.7334, 0.7192, 0.7105 and 0.7002

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 8.0K to 16.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 16.1K to 21.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 21.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: 4.0 to 7.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 4.0K: A  soft reading  will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.