The interest rate decision and the Home Loans didn’t push AUD/USD over the edge. It trades in a mixed manner. Tonight’s employment figures could move it. If not, the Aussie will enjoy a calm Good Friday…
The RBA decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3%. Expectations were mixed between leaving rates unchanged and cutting them by 0.5%. The RBA went halfway, and cut rates by 0.25%. Immediately after the cut, yesterday at 4:30 GMT, AUD/USD rose nicely.
But Home Loans weren’t mixed – they were disappointing – Australian Home Loans rose only by 0.4%, much less than 2% that was anticipated by economists. This took the Aussie downwards.
But all in all, the Aussie’s moves this week are not large. No support or resistance lines have been broken. AUD/USD traded in a range between 0.7033 and 0.7168 – quite narrow for the last period.
Thursday morning features significant releases regarding employment: Employment Change is expected to be negative, and show a loss of 24.8K jobs, contrary to a rise of 1.8K jobs last month.
The second, complementary figure, is the Unemployment Rate, a figure that is more popular with the mass media. Australian Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.4%, going up 0.2% from last time.
These two releases are very important to the Aussie, and the last ones in this short trading week. If they turn out to be better than expected, AUD/USD can go over the major resistance line of 0.7267. If they’re mixed, the Aussie will keep on trading at a rather narrow range, and wait with the breakthrough for next week, after Easter.
I continue to remain bullish on the Aussie. Here’s the technical analysis for AUD/USD this week.
Happy holidays!
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