AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 24-28


AUD/USD gave up over 150 pips last week, falling below the 1.04 level. The pair closed at 1.0395. There are no scheduled releases this week, with the markets closed on December 25th and 26th. Here is an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

With very few fundamentals out of Australia last week, the market focus was on the US, where most releases were within or better than the markets expectations. US Core Durable Goods Orders, released on Friday, was very strong, and helped give the greenback a boost against the aussie at the end of the trading week.

Updates: The Australian markets were closed on Monday and Tuesday, and no releases are scheduled this week. The aussie has slumped badly, and has given up around two cents against the US dollar since mid-December. AUD/USD remains rangebound, and was trading at 1.0363. AUD/USD remains rangebound, and was trading at 1.0382.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:


AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0553, and touched a high of 1.0555. The rest of the week was all downhill, as the pair slumped, dropping to a low of 1.0394, breaking below resistance at 1.0402 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0395.

With the aussie losing ground this week, we begin at lower levels. There is resistance at 1.0874, which has held firm since August 2011. We next encounter resistance at 1.0718, which has not been tested since early March. Below, there is resistance at 1.0605. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. Next, 1.0508 has reverted to a resistance line after the pair broke through on its sharp drop. Next, 1.0424 is providing weak resistance, and could see further activity this week.

AUD/USD is receiving support at 1.0326, which saw a lot of activity in November, but has been quiet since then, as the pair pushed higher in December. Below, there is support at 1.0230. We next encounter support at 1.0174, which has held firm since early October.

This is followed by 1.0080, which is protecting the psychologically important parity level. The parity line, last tested in June, is psychologically significant and the next line of support. We next encounter support at 0.9917. The final support line for now is 0.9815, a strong line which has not been tested since June.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has performed well since October, but took a dive this past week, dropping below the 1.04 level. The pair lost ground as strong US data buoyed the greenback. The end of the year is usually characterized by quiet trading, but there is trouble brewing in the US with the fiscal cliff, which has not been resolved, and could continue into the new year. The crisis could have an impact on the pair, and any news of an agreement will calm the markets and should be bullish for the Australian dollar. Conversely, if there are no signs of progress on Capitol Hill, nervous investors could move over to the safe-haven US dollar, at the expense of the aussie.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.