AUD/USD Forecast June 24-28

The Australian dollar  dropped sharply last week, losing over 300 points against the surging US dollar. AUD/USD closed the week  just above the 92 level, at  0.9212.  This week’s  sole release is Private Sector Credit. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian numbers were respectable last week, as New Motor Vehicles Sales and the CB Leading Index posted better numbers than the previous month. However, the Aussie took it on the chin as the US dollar was broadly stronger, following  remarks from the Federal Reserve  that it plans to taper QE later this year.

Updates: It’s a very quiet week as far as economic releases, with the only  Australian release scheduled for Friday.

  • AUD/USD has stabilized, and is trading in the mid-92 range.
  • Australia goes to the polls in September, and a recent poll found that Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s Labor Party  would be badly defeated, and could  lose more than half of its seats in parliament.
  • Kevin Rudd is the new Australian Prime Minister: Rudd won over Gillard in a confidence vote and ousted her. Rudd is considered pro-business so we could see the Aussie get a boost from this political shuffle. Elections will be now be held on August 24th. AUD/USD moved up towards the release, and is above 0.93.
  • Chris Bowen has been named the new Australian Treasurer, replacing Wayne Swan. Bowen is considered a close ally of incoming Prime  Minister  Kevin Rudd.
  • Australia’s lone economic release this week, Private Sector Credit, will be released on Friday.
  • Australian private sector credit grew by 0.3%, more than 0.2% expected. AUD/USD is trading at the lower end of the range, at around 0.9230 as end of month flows move markets.
  • AUD/USD breaks down to a new multi-year low: end of month/quarter flows send the Aussie to below 0.9150 – the lowest since September 2010.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUD USD  Forecast June 24-28


  1. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. This indicator measures the change in the amount of credit issued to businesses and consumers. An increase in borrowing signals more spending in the private sector, which is critical for economic growth. The indicator has been quite steady, and rose 0.3% in the previous release, which matched the forecast. No significant change is expected in the upcoming release.

Live Chart of AUD/USD:  [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD was sharply lower last week. The pair opened at 0.9565 and quickly touched a high of 0.9641. The pair then slid all the way to 0.9163, before closing the week at 0.9212, as support at 0.9171 (discussed last week) remained intact.

Technical lines from top to bottom:      

With the sharp losses by AUD/USD, last week saw  multi-year support levels give way. We  start with strong resistance at  1.0183. This line last saw action in  early  May.  The next line of resistance is at 1.0093. This is followed by the parity line, which AUD/USD  broke through  in mid-May, as it continues to push to lower levels.

The next resistance line is at 0.9913. This is followed by 0.9797, which  was last tested in  mid-May.  The next  resistance line is at 0.9634. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels.

0.9549 has reverted to a resistance role. Next is 0.9428,  which has been busy in June. Prior to this month, this line  had  provided strong support, and had not been  breached  since October 2011. The line of 0.9275 also gave way, as the pair broke below it for the first time since September 2010.

This is followed by support at 0.9171. Next, there is support at 0.9041, protecting the all-important 90 level.

0.8893 was last  breached in August 2010, as the Australian dollar put together a strong  rally which saw it  climb  above the 1.10 line. The final line for  now is 0.8747, which has remained in place since July 2010.

I  continue to be  bearish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie is in a bad slump, and we could see nervous investors dump there Australian dollars and seek the safety of  the  US  dollar.  The greenback is broadly strong courtesy of  the US Federal Reserve, and the fallout from the QE announcement could continue into next week.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.