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AUD/USD  didn’t show much movement over the week, posting slight gains. The pair  closed at 0.9332. This week’s highlights  are Business Confidence,  Consumer Sentiment  and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian Building Permits and Retail Sales disappointed, but  a solid GDP helped the Aussie hold its own last week. The news was positive in the US, as Non Farm Payrolls met expectations in May, and the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs both showed improvement.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUDUSD Forecast June9-13

 

  1. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks:  Monday, 16:00. Stevens will be speaking at a US Federal Reserve symposium in San Francisco. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. This key indicator is based on a survey of businesses who are asked to rate current business conditions. The indicator  improved last month, coming in at 6 points. The markets will be looking for the upward trend to continue in the May release.
  3. ANZ Job Advertisements: Tuesday, 1:30.  Job Advertisements is an important gauge of activity in the employment front, which is a crucial component of the Australian economy. The indicator continues to post gains, and came in at 2.2% last month.
  4. Home Loans: Tuesday, 1:30. Home Loans tends to show strong volatility, making accurate market estimates a tricky task. The indicator lost ground last month, posting a decline of -0.9%. This was well off the estimate of -0.1%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at 0.3%.
  5. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday,00:30. Consumer Sentiment is a key release, as stronger consumer confidence usually translates into more consumer spending, which is an important component of economic growth. The indicator had an awful April, posting a sharp decline of 6.8%. The markets will be looking for a stronger reading for May.
  6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. Analysts use this monthly indicator to track CPI, which is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator has been moving upwards, and jumped 4.4% last month.
  7. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. This is one of the most important economic indicators, and can quickly affect the direction of AUD/USD. The indicator has posted three consecutive gains, but finds itself on a downward trend. This is   expected to continue in the May release, with the estimate standing at 10.3 thousand. The Unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 5.9%.

*All times are GMT.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.9297 and  dipped to a low of 0.9229.  The pair then reversed directions, pushing above  the 0.93 line and touching a high of 0.9359, as resistance at 0.9368 (discussed last week) remained intact. The pair closed the week at 0.9332.

 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  start with resistance at 0.9794, which was last tested in June 2013.

There is resistance at the round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9442  marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line.

0.9368  remained intact  as the pair pushed above the 0.93 line for a second straight week. It is not a strong line and could face pressure early in the week.

0.9283 was breached early in the week but recovered and remains in a support role. The next line of support is at 0.9175.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March. This is followed by support at 0.8893.

The final support level for now is 0.8730.  It  marks the low point of an Aussie  rally which began in early February and  saw the currency cross  above the 0.94 line.

 

I am  bearish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie continues to trade at high levels, but the pair could lose ground if key releases such as Employment Change don’t meet expectations. US releases have been generally strong, so there is room for the US dollar to gain ground.