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AUD/USD  was unchanged at the end of the week, as the pair closed at 0.9348.    This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary  Policy Meeting  Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian releases were uneventful last week. In the US, Unemployment Claims plunged to a seven year low, while housing and manufacturing data was sharp. However, consumer confidence fell short of expectations.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     AUDUSD Forecast May19-23

 

 

 

  1. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:00. This important index is based on 7 economic indicators, and helps analysts predict the direction of the economy.  The index posted a modest gain of 0.3% last month, and the same figure is the estimate for the upcoming release.
  2. Monetary  Policy Meeting  Minutes:  Tuesday, 1:30. This is the key release of the week. The RBA minutes present a detailed record of the Bank’s most recent policy meeting, and the minutes  will likely note  that the RBA considers the Aussie overvalued, a theme we continue to hear from the Bank. Analysts will also be looking for clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  3. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Tuesday, 3:15. Debelle will deliver remarks at an event in Adelaide. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Consumer confidence is a key gauge of economic activity, since stronger consumer confidence usually translates into increased consumer spending. The indicator has hit a rocky patch, and finally produced a modest gain in March after four straight declines. The markets will be hoping for another reading in positive territory.
  5. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 1:30. Wage Price Index is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The index improved to 0.7% last month, matching the estimate. The forecast for the April release stands at 0.8%.
  6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This indicator assists analysts in tracking actual inflation. The indicator continues to post readings above the 2.0% level, and rose to 2.4% last month, a nine-month high. Will we see another increase in the upcoming release?
  7. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data such as PMIs, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The index has been mired below the 50-point level throughout 2014, indicative of ongoing contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Little change is expected  in the April reading,  with  the estimate standing at 48.4 points.

*All times are GMT.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.9357 and climbed to a high of 0.9409, as the pair broke above resistance at 0.9368 (discussed last week).  AUD/USD  then  reversed directions, dropping to a low of 0.9327.  The pair  closed the week at 0.9358.

 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  begin with the round number of 0.99, a key resistance level. Next is 0.9794, which was last tested in June 2013.

There is resistance at the round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9442  held firm as  AUD/USD pushed  above the 0.94 before retracting. The line marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line.

0.9368 continues to see action. The line was breached early in the week as the pair moved higher, but recovered and continues in a resistance role as we begin the new week.

0.9283 held firm last week.  However, it is not a strong line and could see activity if the Aussie loses ground.

0.9180 is the next support line. It has some breathing room as the Australian dollar trades at higher levels.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.  0.8893  is the next support line.

The final support level for now is 0.8728.  It  marks the low point of an Aussie  rally which began in early February and  saw the currency cross  above the 0.94 line.

 

I am  bearish on AUD/USD.

The RBA continues to try and talk down the Aussie, and we are likely to see this sentiment repeated in the RBA minutes which  will   be released this  week  . US numbers have been solid and employment numbers continue to improve, so the Fed’s taper scheme is likely to continue.  So, a downward correction  by AUD/USD  remains a  strong  possibility.