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AUD/USD  had  an uneventful week, and was unchanged at week’s end. The pair closed the week at 0.9365. This week’s key event is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian numbers were mixed last week, but the key event was a disappointment, as Business Confidence was down sharply. In the US, Unemployment Claims and Trade Balance missed their estimates.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUD USD Outlook Nov 18-22

  1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This composite index is based on 7 economic indicators. The indicator has looked weak, with two declines in the past three releases. The previous reading came in at -0.2% and the markets will be hoping for some improvement in the October reading.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the major event of the week. Analysts will   be carefully reading through the RBA minutes, looking for clues as to future monetary policy. At the previous policy meeting, the Bank did not reduce rates, but did state that it felt the Aussie was overvalued, and the currency could lose ground  if the minutes reiterate this assessment.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This index is based on 9 economic indicators but is considered a minor release, since most of the data has already been released. Last month’s decline of -0.1% marked the index’s first decline in almost two years.
  4. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle  Speaks: Wednesday, 00:30. Debelle will participate on a panel discussing international finance at an event in Sydney. Remarks which are more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  5. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks:  Thursday, 9:05. Stevens will deliver a speech about the Australian dollar at an event in Sydney. The RBA Governor has made off-the-cuff remarks in the past which have caused some volatility in the currency markets, so analysts will be carefully monitoring Steven’s remarks.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9370 and rose to a high of 0.9390, as resistance held at 0.9428 (discussed last week). The pair then dropped to a low of 0.9302  before closing at 0.9365.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  start at parity,  which remains a  key resistance line. This psychologically significant level has remained intact since May.

Next, there is resistance at 0.9913. This is followed by resistance at 0.9828.

The line of 0.9751 provided key resistance in early June and with AUD/USD losing ground, it remains a strong resistance line.

0.9670 was a cap for the pair in late May. It was briefly breached in late October but continues in a resistance role.

0.9556 continues to provide strong resistance. 0.9428 was busy in the first half of October and started the week in a resistance. It held firm this week but remains weak. This line could see action early in the week if the Aussie reverses direction.

0.9283 saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady support since mid-September.

0.9180 is the next support level. This is followed by the round number of 0.9000. This psychologically important level was breached in early September, when the Australian dollar started a strong rally which saw it break past the 0.95 line.

The final line for now is 0.8893. This has been a strong support line since August 2010, when the Australian dollar put together a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.10 line.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

Australian data has not been strong, and the RBA continues to warn that the Aussie is overvalued and could hurt the fragile economy. We’ll see this reiterated in the minutes of the RBA’s last policy meeting, and the Australian dollar could lose ground as a result.