AUD/USD showed little change last week, closing at 0.8766. The upcoming week is busy, with 14 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. As expected, the Fed ended its QE program, a vote of confidence for the economy from the powerful Fed. The Fed released a hawkish policy statement, which helped bolster the greenback. In Australia, PPI matched the forecast with a weak gain of 0.2%. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 22:30. This index provides a snapshot of activity in the Australian manufacturing sector. The indicator has managed to crack the 50 level just once in 2014, indicative of ongoing contraction. The previous release came in at 46.5 points. MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 23:30. This monthly indicator helps analysts track CPI, which is released each quarter. Recent readings have not strayed far from the 0.0% level, with the past release coming in at 0.1%. Building Approvals: Monday, 00:30. This indicator tends to show sharp movement, resulting in readings that are well off the forecast. The previous release showed a gains of 3.0%, above the estimate of 1.1%. The markets are expecting a decline of -0.9% in the upcoming release. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. Job Advertisements is an important gauge of the health of the labor market. The indicator has shown gains for four straight months and posted a gain of 0.9% in September. Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. The Aussie is sensitive to key Chinese releases, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The previous reading came in at 50.2 points, just above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. More of the same is expected in the upcoming reading, with an estimate of 50.4 points. Commodity Prices: Monday, 5:30. With the global slowdown showing no signs of improvement, commodity prices continue to lose ground. The indicator posted a particularly sharp decline of 16.8% last month. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 00:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, a key component of economic growth. The indicator posted a weak gain of 0.1% last month, off the estimate of 0.4%. The forecast for the upcoming release stands at 0.3%. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 00:30. Australia continues to post a trade deficit, with a reading of AUD -0.79 billion last month, which was within expectations. The markets are expecting a larger deficit in September, with an estimate of AUD -1.78 billion. Trade Balance is closely linked to currency demand, so a weak reading could weigh on the Aussie. Cash Rate: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA has maintained the benchmark rate at 2.50% since July 2013, and no change is expected. The RBA will announce its decision in a rate statement. AIG Services Index: Tuesday, 22:30. The index has been below the 50 level since February, pointing to ongoing contraction in the services sector. The September reading slipped to 45.4 points. Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. This key event can have a major impact on the direction of AUD/USD. The indicator looked awful last month, posting a loss of 29.7 thousand jobs. This surprised the markets, which had expected a gain of 17.6. thousand. The markets are expecting a sharp turnaround, with an estimate of +10.3 thousand. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay unchanged at 6.1%. AIG Construction Index: Thursday, 22:30. The index is pointing to expansion in the construction sector, with four consecutive readings above the 50 level. The indicator showed a strong gain in the previous release, climbing to 59.1 points. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, 00:30. The RBA releases a policy statement once a quarter, and this release, coming on the heels of the rate announcement, could be a market-mover. The markets will be looking for hints as to the RBA’s future monetary policy, especially interest rate levels. Chinese Trade Balance: Saturday, Tentative. The slowdown in China is worrying the global markets. China’s trade surplus slid to $31.0 billion, down from $49.8 billion a month earlier. This was well short of the estimate of $41.2 billion. The markets are expecting an improvement in the September release, with an estimate of $35.6 billion. * All times are GMT. AUD/USD Technical Analysis AUD/USD started the week at 0.8804 and climbed to a high of 0.8911. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.8755, as support held at 0.8750 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 0.8766. Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines from top to bottom: We begin with resistance at 0.9270. This line supported the pair in August but reverted to resistance in September with the Australian dollar sustaining steep losses. 0.9175 remains a strong resistance line. The round number of 0.9000 is next. 0.8891 continues to provide strong resistance. AUD/USD broke above this line before retracting sharply. 0.8750 held firm in support as the pair reversed directions after posting strong gains. It is an immediate support line, and could see activity early in the week. 0.8660 continues to provide strong support. 0.8550 has held firm since December 2007. 0.8316 marked the start low point of a US dollar rally which saw the greenback climb above the 1.10 level. 0.8150 is our final support line for now. It has remained intact since September 2007. I am bearish on AUD/USD. The US dollar has benefited from a US economy which continues to expand at an impressive clip, led by a strong GDP and excellent consumer confidence numbers. With the Fed giving the economy a thumbs up and concluding QE last week, the next move is a rate hike in 2015. Down Under, the RBA is unlikely to tinker with rates, and this week’s key numbers will have to be strong if the Aussie hopes to hold its own against the US dollar. In our latest podcast, we review November’s big event and run down the recent ones: Download it directly here. Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes. Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar. Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile View All Post By Kenny Fisher AUD/USD ForecastMinorsWeekly Forex Forecasts share Read Next After the dollar rally: can the NFP justify the moves? David Starkey 8 years AUD/USD showed little change last week, closing at 0.8766. The upcoming week is busy, with 14 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. As expected, the Fed ended its QE program, a vote of confidence for the economy from the powerful Fed. The Fed released a hawkish policy statement, which helped bolster the greenback. In Australia, PPI matched the forecast with a weak gain of 0.2%. [do action="autoupdate" tag="AUDUSDUpdate"/] AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 22:30. 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