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AUD/USD  posted  strong gains last week  but then retracted, as the pair was  unchanged at the  end of the  week.  AUD/USD closed  at 0.8672. This week’s highlight is NAB Business Confidence. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, the dollar got a significant blow from the FOMC minutes, where the  Fed  voiced its concern about the  strength of the dollar. However, the Aussie failed to take advantage as Employment Claims posted a sharp decline. In addition, fears about global growth, coming from the IMF and others, crept in and hit the Australian dollar.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast Oct13-17

  1. Chinese Trade Balance: Monday, Tentative.  The  Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data, as  China  is  Australia’s most important trading partner. Trade Balance improved to $49.8 billion in  August, easily beating  the estimate of $40.8 billion. The markets are  expecting a softer reading  this week, with the estimate standing at $41.2 billion.  
  2. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Monday, 22:30. Debelle will speak at a conference in Sydney. The markets will be looking for any hints regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence is a key event which can affect the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator slipped to 8 points in the previous release.
  4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30.  Consumer sentiment usually translates into consumer spending, a key component of engine growth. The indicator tends to fluctuate and posted a sharp decline of 4.6% in the previous release.
  5. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Wednesday, 00:30. This indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as cars and trucks are big-ticket purchases. The indicator has posted two consecutive declines and the markets  are hoping for a gain in the upcoming release.
  6. Chinese CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. Chinese CPI has been steadily dropping, and slipped to 2.0% in August. This was shy of the estimate of 2.2%. The markets are expecting another drop, with an estimate of 1.7%. A weak reading could weigh on the Australian dollar.
  7. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. Edey will speak at a conference  in Sydney. Remarks which are more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar. Inflation Expectations is a useful indicator to gauge inflation levels. The indicator has been posting strong readings, coming in at 3.5% in August.
  8. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Thursday, Tentative. Debelle will speak at a panel discussion at a conference in Sydney.  A speech  that  is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  started the week  at 0.8662 which was also the low of the week. The pair  climbed all the way to 0.8898, breaking past resistance at 0.8891(discussed last week). AUD/USD then retracted, closing the week at 0.86772.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical  lines from top to bottom:

We  begin  with  resistance at 0.9270. This line supported the pair in August but reverted to resistance in September  with the Australian dollar sustaining steep losses.

0.9175  remains a strong resistance line. The round number of 0.9000  is next.

0.8898  continues in  a resistance role. The line held firm as the pair climbed sharply before retracting.

0.8750 was briefly breached but recovered as the  Aussie  retracted  its sharp gains.

0.8660 remains a weak support line.

0.8550 has  held  firm since  December 2007.

0.8316 marked the start low point of a US dollar rally which saw the greenback climb above the 1.10 level.

0.8150 is our final support line for now. It has remained intact since September 2007.

I  remain bearish  on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar managed to hold its own last week, but the greenback could resume its winning ways, as US fundamentals remains strong, led by solid employment numbers. The RBA continues to snipe at what it considers an overvalued Aussie and this will preclude any interest rate hikes in the near future.

In our latest podcast, we talk about the US labor market, run down the FOMC minutes, reflect on falling oil and discuss next week’s events:

Download it directly here.

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Further reading: