Has the post RBA rally ended for the Australian dollar? The Aussie is pressured down again, trading under 0.76 against the USD and edging closer to parity against the New Zealand dollar.
Here are three reasons for this fall:
- China: No, it was not the GDP release. This came in bang on expectations at 7% y/y. Well, the expectations are driven by the government’s programs, which also helps shape the number. Many doubt the accuracy of the Chinese GDP data. However, other data figures badly disappointed. This includes industrial output (only +5.6% instead of 7% expected) retail sales and investment., So, even if the headline figure is not horrible, the overall picture leaves much to be desired.
- Australian weakness: The Westpac Consumer Sentiment data fell by 3.2%, significantly worse than the previous fall of 1.2% recorded. With this kind of sentiment, it is hard to see Australia moving away from mining into other sectors. The fall in iron ore prices and worries about the budget are cited as reasons for the weakness.
- Greenback comeback #2: The US dollar came back from the devastating NFP after a few days of suffering. The recovery from the weak retail sales came faster. The general question for markets remains the same: if the USD, what will you buy? The dollar is strengthening across the board and the Aussie is one of the easier currencies to take on.
The Australian dollar is awaiting another important event: AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change
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