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Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change  posted an excellent  gain of 17.9 thousand in May, well above the  estimate of 14.9 thousand.  The markets are expecting a softer reading in the June report, with a forecast of 10.1 thousand.

 Sentiment and Levels

In the US, monetary policy is not expected to be hawkish and a rate hike appears doubtful. The markets will have to deal with the new Brexit reality, and continuing instability in the markets could weigh on the Aussie. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7930, 0.7835, 0.7692, 0.7597, 0.7438 and 0.7334

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 7.0K to 13.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 13.1K to 17.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 17.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: 4.0 to 6.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 3.9K: A  soft reading  will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.