Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Update:Australia loses 9.8K jobs – AUD/USD erases gains
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change reversed directions in August, posting a decline of 3.9 thousand. This was well short of the estimate of 15.2 thousand. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in September, with an estimate of 15.2 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The US economy continues to improve, buoyed by a red-hot labor market. With a December rate hike priced at 60%, monetary divergence continues to favor the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7938, 0.7835, 0.7691, 0.7513, 0.7427 and 0.7334
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
- Below expectations: 8.0 to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: A soft reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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