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Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change  posted a negligible gain of 0.3  thousand in February, well off the estimate of 11.6 thousand.  The markets are expecting a strong  surge in the  March report, with a forecast of 18.6 thousand. Will the indicator beat this rosy prediction?

 Sentiment and Levels

With the dovish Fed minutes behind us, the markets can  put  rate hike speculation on the backburner and focus on US fundamentals, which have generally been strong. As well, with an uncertain global economic environment, the safe-haven US dollar remains an attractive asset for many investors. So, the overall sentiment is  bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7886, 0.7798, 0.7692, 0.7597, 0.7438 and 0.7334

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 14.0K to 22.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 22.1K to 27.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 27.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: 9.0 to 13.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 9.0K: A  soft reading  will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.