Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change has hit some turbulence, posting declines of over -10 thousand in the past two releases. The markets are expecting a dramatic turnaround in September, with an estimate of 15.2 thousand. Will the indicator follow suit and meet or beat this rosy prediction?
Sentiment and Levels
The slowdown in the US shows no signs of being resolved, and this has kept pressure on the US dollar. Traders have shown a more positive attitude to risky assets like the Aussie and this could enable the currency to make more gains against the US dollar. Much will depend on the market reaction to the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the strength of US Unemployment Claims. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9751, 0.9670, 0.9556, 0.9428, 0.9283 and 0.9180.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: 8.0K to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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