Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change has surged in the past two months, posting gains of 71.4 thousand and 58.6 thousand respectively, easily beating the estimates on both occasions. However, the markets are braced for a sharp downturn in the December report, with a forecast of -11.0 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The Aussie has endured a rough January, hit hard by the Chinese stock market meltdown and the devaluation of the yuan. AUD/USD has closed in on the symbolic 0.70 level and could continue to lose ground. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.71, 0.70, 0.6899, 0.6775 and 0.6686.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -14.0K to -8.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -7.9K to -4.0K: A smaller decline than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above -4.0K: In this scenario AUD/USD could break two or more resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: -18.0K to -14.1K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below -18.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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