AUD/USD: Trading the Chinese Flash PMI Nov 2013

Chinese Flash Manufacturing  PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in China. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:45 GMT.

Indicator Background

Traders should pay close attention to this key release, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner, and an unexpected reading can quickly affect the direction of AUD/USD.

The index continues to trade just above the 50-point line, indicating slight expansion.  The September release came in at 50.9 points, narrowly beating the estimate of 50.5.  The  estimate for October  stands at 50.9 points.

Australian data has not been strong, and the RBA continues to warn that the Aussie is overvalued and could hurt the fragile economy. If US data improves from last week’s disappointing releases, the US dollar could gain ground. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.9670, 0.9556, 0.9428, 0.9283, 0.9180 and 0.900.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 49.0 to 53.0: In such a case, AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations:  53.1 to 57.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above  57.0: Given the current trend, the likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome would push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4. Below expectations:  44.0 to 49.0: A sharper decrease than forecast could push AUD/USD downwards and break one level of support.
5. Well below expectations: Below 44.0: A very poor reading  could negatively impact on  the Australian dollar and push the pair below a second support level.

For more on the Australian dollar, see the AUD/USD forecast.

To follow this event live:    [do action=”calendar-event” eventid=”80b0adcf-cfa9-4583-9d3a-f720a4a3f5fa”/]