US JOLTS Job Openings measures the change in the number of employment openings, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible JOLTS outcomes for USD/JPY.
Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, publication of employment data such as JOLTS Job Openings is highly anticipated by the markets, and the indicator can have a strong impact on the direction of USD/JPY.
JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 5.76 million in the March release, easily beating the estimate of 5.55 million. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 5.82 million for the April report.
Sentiment and Levels
The dust hasn’t yet settled from Friday’s dismal NFP report, which shocked the markets. This weak release could lead the Fed to remain on the sidelines in June, but a July move remains on the table. The Japanese economy remains weak, and a soft Japanese GDP could push the yen down in a hurry. So, the sentiment is neutral on USD/JPY towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.1094, 1.0990, 1.0895, 1.0739, 1.0625 and 1.0519.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 5.78M to 5.86M: In this scenario, USD/JPY could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 5.87M to 5.92M: A reading above expectations could push the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 5.92M: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel USD/JPY upwards, and a second resistance line could be broken.
- Below expectations: 5.72M to 5.77M: A weak reading could push the pair lower, with one support line at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 5.21M: Such a scenario would likely weigh on the dollar, and USD/JPY could break below a second support line.
For more on the yen, see the USD/JPY forecast.
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