Andrew Hanlan, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the ABS survey of private business investment plans, the CAPEX survey, will provide some further guidance on growth prospects and the September quarter update will be released on November 29, including the 4th estimate of plans for 2018/19, as well as actual capex spending for Q3 2018.
Key Quotes
“The September quarter survey was conducted during October and November. Private business surveys report that business conditions are elevated but have moderated from earlier in the year, while business confidence has been around or a little below long run average levels.”
“Business investment has turned the corner, advancing in 2017, after four years of decline. The drag from the mining investment wind-down is greatly diminished (but not quite complete) and an upswing in non-mining investment is underway, to meet the needs of a growing population. Public investment is in a strong upswing – with a focus on much needed transport infrastructure – with positive spill-over effects to business investment.”
“However, a question mark remains around the strength of consumer spending. The household sector remains under pressure with weak wages growth, high debt levels and falling house prices. The absence of above trend consumer spending growth is a headwind for business equipment spending. The upcoming Federal election is a potential complicating factor, with a risk that firms temporarily delay spending decisions.”
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