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Analysts at NAB points out that Australia’s NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).  

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“Results were stronger for only two of the six major categories: other retailing and cafes, restaurants and takeaways, although all but one category (household goods) recorded positive growth for the month. Overall, our indicator suggests that retail sales were much less buoyant in Q2 than Q1.”

Our data mapping suggests that the official ABS measure of retail sales will rise 0.4% in June, following a rise of 0.4% in May.  The May ABS print was stronger than our then expectation for a flat result.”

The data remains a little more encouraging on a year ended basis, with the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index up 9.9% in June,  although this is potentially distorted by special factors from late-2017, including the new to Australia  Black Friday  sales.”

Retail spending patterns across Australia have seen some convergence over the past few months,  with the difference between the fastest and slowest growing states around 60% of the long term average on a year ended basis.”